Ukraine Battle Replace 2

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Institute for the Research of Struggle, Russia Staff

in article 1

Russia will probably assault Ukraine earlier than February 21, 2022, as we focus on here. The Kremlin has deployed enough navy forces and set informational circumstances to conduct offensive operations together with restricted incursions into unoccupied Ukraine, a complete air and missile marketing campaign, and large-scale mechanized drives on Kyiv and different main Ukrainian cities.

ISW’s Russia Staff is launching a brand new product line, Ukraine Battle Updates, in mild of this forecast. This every day artificial product masking key occasions associated to renewed Russian aggression towards Ukraine will exchange ISW’s earlier “Indicators and Thresholds for Russian Military Operations in Ukraine and/or Belarus,” which we maintained from November 12, 2021, via February 17, 2022. That doc will not be up to date.

Key Takeaways February 19

  • Russian and Belarusian forces carried out the ultimate day of energetic tactical workout routines as a part of the Joint Russian-Belarusian “Union Resolve 2022” train, scheduled to finish on February 20. Russian forces at the moment stay scattered throughout a number of Belarusian coaching grounds and can probably require till at the least February 20 to pay attention in southern Belarus if Russia intends to leverage them in an assault on Ukraine.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko oversaw Russia’s “GROM” nuclear triad workout routines, at the moment being held earlier within the 12 months than earlier annual iterations—prone to deter any important NATO response to potential Russian aggression towards Ukraine.
  • Chairman of the Russian State Duma (Parliament) Vyacheslav Volodin introduced the Duma will maintain a session on February 22 to debate and reply to what the Kremlin is looking a pressured mass exodus of Russian residents from the Luhansk and Donetsk Folks’s Republics (LNR and DNR).
  • The Russian-backed Donetsk and Luhansk Folks’s Republics started the final mobilization of military-age male residents amid more and more frantic claims (amplified by Kremlin media) of an impending Ukrainian offensive towards Donbas, together with the publication of a faked Ukrainian offensive plan.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky notably left Ukraine to attend the Munich Safety Convention in individual, and urged Western states to take imminent motion towards Russian escalations.
  • US and NATO officers emphasised unity and collective protection amongst member states towards Russian escalations on the Munich Safety Convention in Germany however introduced no new insurance policies.
  • Chinese language Overseas Minister Wang Yi acknowledged Russia’s safety issues must be revered however urged all states to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty, marking a potential break in China’s earlier full help for Russia within the present Ukraine disaster.

 

Key Occasions February 18, 3pm EST – February 19, 2pm EST

Navy Occasions

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko oversaw Russia’s ongoing “GROM” nuclear triad workout routines from the Kremlin state of affairs heart on February 19 in a possible effort to discourage NATO.[1] The Kremlin sometimes conducts its annual GROM nuclear triad workout routines in early fall and is probably going holding them early to discourage any NATO response to potential Russian offensive actions towards Ukraine. Russian readouts didn’t specify the character of Putin or Lukashenko’s roles within the GROM workout routines past commentary.

Russian Air Pressure components test-launched Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in unspecified areas. A Russian Northern Fleet submarine within the Barents Sea launched a strategic missile on the Kura Missile Testing Website in Kamchatka Krai. Further Northern and Black Sea Fleet components launched Kalibr cruise missiles and Zirkon hypersonic missiles at sea and air targets. Strategic Missile Pressure components within the Kapustin Yar take a look at web site launched Iskander cruise missiles at unspecified targets. Seemingly Strategic Missile Pressure components on the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk Oblast additionally launched Yars intercontinental missiles at targets within the Kura Missile Check Website, Kamchatka Krai. Unspecified Russian components additionally launched cruise missiles from strategic missile carriers at targets within the Kura Missile Check Vary in Kamchatka Krai and the Pemboi Missile Check Vary within the Komi Republic.

Western Navy District Commander Colonel-Basic Alexander Zhuravlev oversaw discipline coaching by the meteorological service of the WMD on February 19.[2] Meteorologists ready climate experiences for aviation flights via the deployment of meteorological stations and cell autonomous complexes. Servicemen used geostationary satellites to compile climate knowledge and analyzed the hydrometeorological context of the realm. This info was used to plan and execute flight workout routines. It’s unclear why the Russian Ministry of Protection individually reported on Zhuravlev’s attendance at a meteorological train. The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) final reported Zhuravlev attending workout routines by the first Guards Tank Military in Moscow on February 10.[3]

300 Russian forty ninth Mixed Arms Military reconnaissance personnel and 60 autos carried out a tactical counter-reconnaissance train on the Kobu-Bashi Coaching Floor in Karachay-Cherkessia, Russia on February 19.[4] The Russian reconnaissance items protected Russian items throughout fight and supplied communications, info, and command and management help throughout the train.

Unspecified Russian Southern Navy District battalion tactical teams (BTGs) practiced new strategies of long-range fireplace utilizing tank and artillery items on the Prudboy Coaching Floor, Volgograd Oblast, Russia, on February 19.[5] T-90A tanks and ATGM crews participated within the train. 

Over 500 operators of the Black Sea Fleet coastal missile techniques participated in an train to defend the Crimean Peninsula and Caucasian coast from mock missile strikes on February 19.[6] Crews launched missiles at sea targets from designated positional areas and recognized floor targets in Crimea and Krasnodar Krai. The train was a part of a wider sequence of ongoing Russian naval workout routines involving over 10,000 servicemembers. 

Russian Exercise

Chairman of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin introduced on February 19 that the Duma will maintain a session to debate and reply to what the Kremlin is looking a pressured mass exodus of Russian residents from the Luhansk and Donetsk Folks’s Republics (LNR and DNR) on February 22.[7] Duma member Viktor Vodolatsky claimed that almost 36,000 folks have arrived in Rostov from the LNR and DNR, 70 p.c of whom volunteered to maneuver.[8] The LNR opened 61 checkpoints to facilitate the evacuation.[9] Twenty-six Russian areas will obtain refugees, together with the Moscow area, Orlovsk, Tulsk, Kaliningrad, Yaroslav, Bryansk, Astrkhan, and South Ossetia.[10] The Voronezh area was subsequently positioned on excessive alert to accommodate refugee actions.[11] In response to the alleged mass exodus, the United Russia occasion acknowledged that they’re offering help for the DNR and LNR within the type of charities, volunteer organizations, and authorized assist.[12]

Russian rhetoric on February 19 more and more framed the state of affairs as a manifestation of a Ukrainian genocide towards Donbas, enabled by the West.[13] Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin accused contributors of the Munich Safety Convention of ignoring what he claimed is an ongoing genocide towards residents of the Donbas area, and Russian Overseas Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova equally claimed the West is blatantly overlooking ”crimes towards humanity” in Donbas.[14] Vice Speaker of Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev moreover accused america and its allies of encouraging a Ukrainian offensive towards Donbas that’s inflicting a mass exodus of Russian residents and targets civilian infrastructure of the LNR and DNR.[15]

Kremlin-sponsored media reported that Ukrainian paramilitary teams shelled Rostov Oblast on February 19, probably to suggest that Ukraine could use the Donbas disaster to assault Russia.[16] Russian Police reported an preliminary explosion within the Mityakinskaya village in Tarasovsky District, Rostov Oblast. The Russian Federal Investigative Committee launched a prison investigation into one other multiple-launch-rocket-system shelling in Mityakinskaya, Rostov Oblast, that reportedly broken two vacant residential buildings on February 19.[17] The Committee additionally opened a prison investigation after Donetsk Folks’s Republic (DNR) Militia Head Denis Sinenkov’s automotive exploded on February 18. The DNR accused and detained reported Ukrainian agent Anton Matsanyuk for mining Sinekov’s automobile. Russian media reported that Matsanyuk admitted to monitoring the automotive and mining it with Ukrainian explosives. Russian media added that Matsanyuk organized a terrorist group to recruit Donetsk residents to hold out provocations within the metropolis.[18]

Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov and French Overseas Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian mentioned the battle in Donbas throughout a cellphone name on February 19.[19] Lavrov reiterated Kremlin claims that the Ukrainian authorities is hindering progress towards a peaceable resolution by failing to abide by the Minsk II Accords, refusing to acknowledge the Donetsk and Luhansk Folks’s Republics (DNR and LNR) as professional events within the battle, and refusing to grant the DNR and LNR particular constitutional standing inside Ukraine. Lavrov accused Ukraine of build up navy forces on the road of contact, militarizing the inhabitants, and inciting armed provocations in Donbas. Lavrov emphasised the necessity for worldwide codecs just like the Normandy Format, of which France is a member, and the shortage of acceptable options to the Minsk agreements. Lavrov probably requested Le Drian to strain Ukraine into participating in worldwide codecs beneath Russian phrases.  

Russia’s delegation refused to attend a gathering of the Trilateral Contact Group to debate de-escalating tensions in japanese Ukraine on February 19.[20] The group’s chair, Group for Safety and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) consultant Mikko Kinnunen, mentioned that Russian representatives “linked their attendance to sure [unspecified] political preconditions.” The Donetsk Folks’s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk Folks’s Republic (LNR) delegations additionally refused to take part within the Trilateral Contact Group conferences on February 18. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued Russia’s annual callup of navy reservists for service within the Armed Forces, Rosgvardia, and state and federal safety businesses on February 18—sooner than the conventional annual callup in March or April.[21] The decree entered pressure instantly on February 18 however didn’t specify when reservists will enter coaching. The callup isn’t itself irregular however has been issued earlier within the 12 months than normal, with most callups issued in March or April.[22] Russian reservists will probably help Russian militarization efforts and pressure posturing towards Ukraine.

Proxy Exercise

The Donetsk Folks’s Republic (DNR) claimed it obtained a Ukrainian plan for a five-day offensive to forcibly regain management of Donbas and push Russian-speaking populations to Russia on February 19.[23] The DNR claimed that Ukrainian forces will strike in three levels, with the Ukrainian thirtieth Mechanized, seventeenth Tank, ninety fifth Air Assault, and twenty sixth Artillery Brigades attacking proxy positions from Kramatorsk and Debaltseve, Donetsk Oblast. The DNR added that Ukrainian forces will then advance from Alchevs’ok, Luhansk Oblast, and Yenakijeve, Donetsk Oblast, as much as the Russian border in three days. The DNR claimed that Ukrainian forces may even launch an offensive from Shyrokyne, Donetsk Oblast, and that Ukrainian sea troops advance from Novoazovs’ok to Illovais’ok and Ulyanivs’ke in Donetsk Oblast on February 21. The DNR added that Ukrainian forces on the Luhansk entrance will then transfer to Khrustalnyi, Luhansk Oblast. The DNR claimed that the Ukrainian twenty sixth, forty third, and fifty fifth Artillery Brigades will conduct large artillery, air, and drone strikes towards civilian amenities, whereas establishing a blockade round Donetsk, Luhansk, Horlivka, and Alchevs’ok. The DNR added that Ukraine and UK instructors have created misinformation movies that includes an actor taking part in a Russian defector who admits to chemical weapon terrorist assaults towards Ukrainian targets to offer a pretext for Ukrainian invasion.[24]

The Luhansk Folks’s Republic (LNR) is amplifying experiences that Ukrainian forces are trying to hurt LNR and DNR evacuees, claiming that police safely disarmed a mined automotive beneath a bridge on an evacuation freeway to Russia in Molodohvardiis’ok, Luhansk Oblast.[25] The LNR claimed Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance teams probably precipitated at the least three fuel pipeline explosions in Luhansk, leading to a number of fires within the metropolis.[26] The LNR claimed that Ukrainian forces fired 120 mortars in Pervomais’ok, Metalist, and Slov’yanoserbs’ok, Luhansk Oblast.[27]

The DNR claimed Ukrainian forces wounded an aged civilian with shelling in Pikuzy, Donetsk Oblast.[28] The DNR accused the Ukrainian twenty fifth Brigade of shelling a water pumping station in Vasylivka, Donetsk Oblast, leading to lack of electrical energy and the cessation of the station’s operation.[29] The DNR issued one other conflicting report that Ukraine’s twenty fourth Separate Assault unit of the Proper Sector broken the Donetsk Filter Station.[30] The DNR claimed that the inoperability of the station jeopardizes water provides for over 40 settlements on either side of the road of contact. The DNR additionally claimed to obtain nameless details about the mining of two inns and 4 residential complexes in Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast.[31] The DNR accused Ukrainian forces of disseminating leaflets amongst civilians to instigate panic.[32]

The LNR denounced media experiences that proxy republics need to abandon the Minsk II Accords however restated proxy disinterest in scheduling any additional Trilateral Contact Group conferences contemplating Kyiv’s provocations.[33] The LNR added that the LNR and DNR will host a Trilateral Contact Group assembly if Ukraine sends particular proposals for remaining selections on battle settlement.

The Donetsk and Luhansk Folks’s Republics (LNR and DNR) issued basic mobilization decrees on February 19.[34] The LNR decree referred to as for a basic mobilization of male residents aged 18 to 55, claiming that the Ukrainian Armed Forces intensified their shelling and navy buildup on the line of contact.[35] The DNR equally adopted a unanimous decree for basic mobilization and introduced that the DNR authorities would instantly shift its financial system to a wartime footing.[36]  

Belarusian Exercise

Russian and Belarusian forces carried out the ultimate day of energetic tactical workout routines as a part of the Joint Russian-Belarusian “Union Resolve 2022” train, scheduled to finish on February 20, at varied coaching grounds throughout Belarus on February 19.[37] Russian forces at the moment stay scattered throughout a number of Belarusian coaching grounds and can probably want till at the least February 20 to pay attention in southern Belarus if Russia intends to leverage them in an assault on Ukraine. Belarusian Protection Minister Viktor Khrenin noticed the day’s foremost workout routines at Obuz-Lesnovsky (close to Baranovichi in Western Belarus, 90 miles from the Ukrainian border), which included remaining joint tactical actions of the Belarusian Western Operational Command, the Russian Pacific Fleet Naval Infantry, and joint Belarusian-Russian aviation crews.[38] The Belarusian MoD marketed that over 120 worldwide media representatives attended workout routines at Obuz-Lesnovsky in an effort to underline the Union State’s want to be clear and cooperative with the worldwide media.[39]  Russian Naval Infantry from the Jap Navy District additionally practiced tactical airborne landings and helicopter reconnaissance at Obuz-Lesnovsky.[40] The Belarusian MoD reported that Belarusian Sign Corps components withdrew their forces and property again to their factors of everlasting deployment after offering communications help throughout Union Resolve workout routines.[41] An unspecified Belarusian mechanized brigade participated in mock fight on the Gozkhy coaching floor (Western Belarus, about 175 miles north of the border with Ukraine). An unspecified Belarusian mechanized brigade labored with Russian marines to pursue a mock enemy and restore an advantageous border place at Baranovichi (Western Belarus, about 120 miles north of the Ukrainian border). Joint Belarusian-Russian particular forces carried out anti-sabotage and reconnaissance measures at Maryina Gorka (Central Belarus, about 230 miles from the Ukrainian border).

A number of Russian items participated in workout routines close to the Ukrainian border, however the heart of gravity of workout routines remained in Western Belarus, and Russian items haven’t deployed to meeting areas in Belarus. Unspecified Belarusian particular operations forces and Russian airborne and motorized rifle items practiced restoring fight capability and carried out live-fire workout routines on the Brestsky coaching floor (Southwestern Belarus, lower than 30 miles from the Ukrainian border). Russian missile items carried out unspecified fight duties at Gomel (Southeastern Belarus, lower than 30 miles north of the Ukrainian border).  Belarusian missile forces carried out reconnaissance and fight in an space managed by a mock enemy at Pinsk (Southern Belarus, about 40 miles from the Ukrainian border) and redeployed to a brand new fight space at Polessky (Southern Belarus, about 45 miles from the Ukrainian border).

Ukrainian Exercise

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Western states to take imminent motion towards the Russian navy buildup on the Munich Safety Convention (MSC) in Munich, Germany, on February 19.[42] Zelensky referred to as on Western international locations to publicize the sanctions they plan to impose on Russia within the occasion of an escalation and urged international locations to make no offers “behind Ukraine’s again.”  Zelensky blamed western states for his or her “indifference” to the Russian navy buildup at Ukraine’s border throughout his speech. Zelensky additionally invoked the 1994 Budapest Memorandum that granted safety assurances for Ukraine‘s territorial integrity from Russia, america, and the UK in alternate for its denuclearization. Zelensky referred to as for a gathering of the 4 signatory states and acknowledged {that a} failure to carry such a gathering would put your entire bundle of measures “unsure,” probably insinuating a Ukrainian must regain nuclear weapons. Zelensky additionally referred to as on NATO to make clear Ukraine’s accession timeline. Moreover, Zelensky held bilateral conferences with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, US Vice President Kamala Harris, and worldwide monetary establishments representatives throughout the go to.[43] Individually, Ukrainian Overseas Minister Dmytro Kuleba participated within the G7 Overseas Ministers assembly on the Munich Safety Convention on February 19.[44] Kuleba mentioned Ukraine and america would spare no diplomatic effort to guard Ukraine after assembly US State Secretary Antony Blinken.[45] Kuleba additionally held a gathering with German Overseas Minister Annalena Burbock and French Overseas Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian to debate Russia’s disinformation campaigns and the safety state of affairs in Ukraine.[46]

The Ukrainian authorities supplied a number of updates on February 19 on continued Russian proxy and propaganda exercise to attract Ukraine right into a navy provocation, together with the deployment of Wagner forces to Donbas.[47] The Ukrainian Operational and Tactical Group East claimed on February 19 that Wagner Group operatives are in Donbas to conduct provocative offensives, primarily by detonating explosives in residential buildings.[48] together with Protection Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov, Ukrainian Protection Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, Deputy Minister for the Integration of Occupied Territories Iryna Vereschuk, and Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Lieutenant Basic Yevhen Moisyuk visited the Donbas line of contact to additional show Ukraine’s nonaggression, dedication to a political-diplomatic resolution, and fight Russian propaganda efforts to painting Ukraine because the aggressor in Donbas.[49] Ukraine’s State Safety Service (SBU) mentioned that proxy shelling and Russian propaganda efforts represent a hybrid struggle towards Ukraine and reiterated that Russian propaganda claims are faux and goal to destabilize Ukraine. The SBU reiterated that Ukraine is not going to give in to those provocations and that SBU officers stay on excessive alert towards a potential Russian escalation.[50] The Ukraine Protection Ministry additionally reported that Russian proxy forces in Pikuzy tried to cross off a proxy shelling as Ukrainian on February 19 to additional promote Russian propaganda efforts.[51]

US Exercise

US Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with a number of NATO and European leaders on the Munich Safety Convention in Munich, Germany, on February 18-19.[52] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with French Overseas Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian to debate ongoing diplomacy with and deterrence towards Russia on February 19.[53] US Vice President Kamala Harris met with NATO Secretary Basic Jens Stoltenberg in Munich on February 18. Harris and Stoltenberg mentioned reinforcements to NATO allies, together with sending additional US troops to Europe and offering $650 million in protection help to Ukraine. Harris additionally met with the leaders of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia on February 18. Harris addressed the Munich Safety Convention on February 19.[54] Harris mentioned that Russia is instantly threatening European safety in Ukraine with provocations and disinformation. Harris reaffirmed the US’ dedication to NATO’s Article 5 and the ideas of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Harris mentioned the US stays dedicated to diplomacy, however the US will impose monetary sanctions and export controls on Russia and bolster NATO’s japanese flank within the occasion of an invasion. The US may even goal “those that are complicit and people who assist and abet this unprovoked invasion.” Harris introduced that the US lately deployed a further 6,000 troops to Romania, Poland, and Germany, and put a further 8,500 troops within the US on a heightened state of readiness. Harris concluded that NATO stays unified within the face of Russian aggression.

US Protection Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Poland and Lithuania on February 18-19 to debate protection cooperation, arms gross sales to Poland, and deterring Russian aggression.[55] Austin held one-on-one conferences with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Polish Protection Minister Mariusz Blaszczak to debate navy cooperation and Russia’s navy actions in and round Ukraine and Belarus in Warsaw, Poland, on February 18. Blaszczak thanked Austin for reinforcing NATO’s japanese flank by deploying extra US troops in Poland.[56] Austin introduced that the US Protection Division accredited the sale of 250 M1A2 Abrams tanks to the Polish Armed Forces.[57] Austin traveled to Vilnius, Lithuania to fulfill with Estonian Protection Minister Kalle Laanet, Latvian Protection Minister Artis Pabriks, and Lithuanian Overseas Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis to debate Russia’s navy buildup and Baltic requests for extra US pressure deployments to the area on February 19.[58] Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda requested the US deploy extra troops to the area following the assembly.

US President Joe Biden mentioned coordinated responses to the Ukraine disaster with transatlantic leaders by cellphone on February 18.[59] Biden spoke with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, the UK, the European Fee, and NATO. Biden emphasised that america and its NATO allies are “in lockstep” and that the disaster has enhanced the “willpower, unity, and resolve” of the European Union and NATO. Biden decried Russia’s disinformation marketing campaign as an try to falsely justify aggression towards Ukraine. Biden condemned the buildup of Russian troops round Ukraine’s borders and emphasised US and allied resolve to defend NATO territory and impose financial sanctions ought to Russia have interaction in aggressive motion towards Ukraine. Biden reiterated that NATO is not going to ship troops to struggle in Ukraine however reaffirmed their dedication to Ukrainian sovereignty and their help for the Ukrainian inhabitants. Biden mentioned that Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to fulfill with Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov on February 24 at an unspecified location in Europe however warned that the door to diplomacy will shut if Russia engages in navy motion earlier than then.

US Secretary of Protection Lloyd Austin mentioned Russia may resolve to assault Ukraine “in brief order” on February 18.[60] Austin mentioned that Russia is ready to “conduct a profitable invasion.” Austin continued that that is probably not a bluff because of the mustering of fight aviation, medical help, and logistical help.

NATO and EU Exercise

NATO Secretary-Basic Jens Stoltenberg condemned Russia’s continued navy buildup close to Ukraine’s borders and mentioned NATO’s diplomatic proposals to Russia on the Munich Safety Convention in Munich, Germany, on February 19.[61] Stoltenberg participated in a session on the Munich Safety Convention alongside a number of different European leaders on February 19. Stoltenberg emphasised NATO’s readiness to have interaction in “substantive dialogue” with Moscow and referred to as for Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine’s borders throughout his speech. Stoltenberg mentioned he reiterated his provide to host new NATO-Russia Council conferences to Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov on February 17 and gave Lavrov a number of written proposals on growing transparency of navy actions and interesting on arms management. Stoltenberg additionally criticized China for the primary time for becoming a member of Russia’s public calls to stop NATO’s growth at a time of rising “strategic competitors” and reiterated the alliance’s unity to defend and shield all member states.

European Union and NATO members emphasised their unity and resolve in opposing Russian aggression and supporting Ukraine throughout the Munich Safety Convention in Munich, Germany, from February 18-19.[62] Bilateral conferences between EU and NATO member states targeted on the regional safety implications of Russia’s navy deployments to Belarus and Ukraine‘s border.[63] European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed NATO and European opposition to Russia’s navy buildup and referred to as on Moscow to have interaction in dialogue to peacefully resolve the state of affairs.[64] Leyen and German Overseas Minister Annalena Baerbock emphasised Europe’s dedication to reducing its dependency on Russian pure fuel. Baerbock introduced that Germany is ready to pause the Nord Stream 2 challenge if Russia assaults Ukraine.[65] European leaders acknowledged the European Fee, america, the UK, and Canada have developed a strong bundle of financial sanctions to impose on Russia ought to Russia invade Ukraine and that an invasion would immediate political, financial, and strategic penalties.[66] French and German Overseas Ministers Jean-Yves Le Drian and Annalena Baerbock condemned ceasefire violations within the Donbas and expressed concern about Russia staging incidents to create a pretext for navy escalation.[67]

Different Worldwide Group Exercise

N/A

Particular person Western Allies’ Exercise

The Group of Seven (G7) international ministers reaffirmed their dedication to Ukrainian sovereignty and condemned Russian aggression on February 19.[68] The international ministers urged Russia to withdraw navy forces from Ukraine’s borders, have interaction in diplomacy, and fulfill commitments to implement the Minsk Agreements in a joint assertion. The G7 international ministers additionally threatened monetary and financial sanctions towards Russia if Russia pursues additional navy aggression towards Ukraine.

Estonia, France, and Germany issued warnings for residents to keep away from journey to Ukraine and for residents in Ukraine to go away instantly attributable to escalating Russian navy threats on February 19.[69] NATO moreover relocated employees from Kyiv to places of work in Lviv and Brussels on February 19.[70] German Airline Lufthansa moreover introduced on February 19 that it’s going to droop flights to Kyiv, Ukraine between February 21 and 28 however is sustaining flights to Lviv in Western Ukraine as of February 19.[71]

The UK authorities assessed on February 18 that Russia was concerned in a February 15 and 16 cyberattack on Ukraine.[72] Seemingly Russian hackers carried out a distributed denial of service (DDoS) cyberattack towards the Ukrainian Protection Ministry (MoD), Ukrainian banks, and Ukrainian non-profit organizations on February 15. The UK acknowledged that Russia’s Principal Intelligence Directorate was concerned within the DDoS assaults towards Ukraine. The UK mentioned the assault demonstrates Russia’s continued aggression and disrespect for Ukrainian sovereignty.

UK Overseas Secretary Liz Truss attended an Group for Safety and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) assembly on Ukraine and referred to as for de-escalation and dialogue on February 18.[73] Truss criticized Russia’s resolution to not attend the OSCE assembly on Ukraine on February 18. Truss referred to as on Russia to have interaction in dialogue and withdraw troops from Ukraine’s border. Ukraine beforehand requested the February 18 assembly with all taking part OSCE states, citing ”uncommon navy actions” by Russia.[74] The Kremlin claimed its drills had been a part of fight coaching plans and declined the invite.[75]

Different Worldwide Exercise

Chinese language Overseas Minister Wang Yi mentioned that implementing the 2015 Minsk II Settlement is the one means out of the Ukraine disaster and acknowledged that every one states’ sovereignty—together with Ukraine’s—should be revered in a potential rebuke to Russia in a video deal with to the Munich Safety Convention on February 19.[76] Yi acknowledged that Russian issues, together with on eastward NATO growth, must be heeded however that Ukraine shouldn’t be a frontline for battle. Yi added that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity should be revered and guarded beneath a multilateral system. Yi criticized “sure main international locations” for stoking confrontation by warning of an imminent invasion.


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[32] https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13765253.

[33] https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13766465.

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[41] https://vayar.mil dot by/information/144771/.

[42] https://www dot president.gov.ua/information/vistup-prezidenta-ukrayini-na-58-j-myunhenskij-konferenciyi-72997; https://www dot president.gov.ua/information/ukrayina-iniciyuye-provedennya-konsultacij-u-mezhah-budapesh-73001; https://www dot president.gov.ua/information/shodo-uchasti-glavi-derzhavi-u-myunhenskij-bezpekovij-konfer-72993; https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/19/world/ukraine-russia-news/russia… https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-19-22-intl/h….

[43] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/02/19/rem….

[44] https://mfa dot gov.ua/information/dmitro-kuleba-vzyav-uchast-u-zustrichi-glav-mzs-krayin-grupi-semi-u-myunheni-partneri-pidtrimuyut-ukrayinu-v-protidiyi-rosijskij-agresiyi.

[45] https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1495040043483910145?s=20&t=BxtAHFz….

[46] https://mfa dot gov.ua/information/dmitro-kuleba-skoordinuvav-iz-glavami-mzs-nimechchini-ta-franciyi-podalshi-kroki-zadlya-deeskalaciyi-situaciyi-na-donbasi; https://mfa dot gov.ua/information/dmitro-kuleba-vzyav-uchast-u-zustrichi-glav-mzs-krayin-grupi-semi-u-myunheni-partneri-pidtrimuyut-ukrayinu-v-protidiyi-rosijskij-agresiyi.

[47] https://www dot president.gov.ua/information/ukrayina-hoche-miru-j-ne-maye-namiru-prosuvatisya-na-okupova-72989 ; https://www.mil dot gov.ua/information/2022/02/19/rosijski-okupanti-znovu-pochali-vikoristovuvati-stari-metodi-zdijsnennya-provokaczij/ ; https://www dot mil.gov.ua/information/2022/02/19/signal-pro-vidsutnist-bud-yakih-agresivnih-namiriv-z-boku-ukraini-u-rajon-oos-pribula-grupa-uryadovcziv-narodnih-deputativ-zhurnalistiv/ ; https://ssu dot gov.ua/novyny/ofitsiina-zaiava-sbu ; https://www.facebook.com/101710131254736/posts/661359668623110/?d=n.

[48] https://www.facebook.com/101710131254736/posts/661359668623110/?d=n.

[49] https://www dot mil.gov.ua/information/2022/02/19/signal-pro-vidsutnist-bud-yakih-agresivnih-namiriv-z-boku-ukraini-u-rajon-oos-pribula-grupa-uryadovcziv-narodnih-deputativ-zhurnalistiv/.

[50] https://ssu dot gov.ua/novyny/ofitsiina-zaiava-sbu.

[51] https://www.mil dot gov.ua/information/2022/02/19/rosijski-okupanti-znovu-pochali-vikoristovuvati-stari-metodi-zdijsnennya-provokaczij/.

[52] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2022/02/18/back….

[53] https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-meeting-with-french-foreign-min….

[54] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/02/19/rem… https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/world/europe/kamala-harris-ukraine-ru….

[55] https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2940194/readout-of….

[56] https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2940543/secr….

[57] https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence/us-department-of-defence-has-app….

[58] https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2941265/readout-of….

[59] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/02/18/rem… https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/18/…

[60] https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-19-22-intl/h….

[61] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_192204.htm?selectedLocale=en.

[62] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_192204.htm?selectedLocale=en; https://www.msb.gov.tr/SlaytHaber/1822022-45443.

[63] https://urm.lt/default/en/news/lithuanias-foreign-minister-gabrielius-la….

[64] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_192204.htm?selectedLocale=en.

[65] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/18/world/ukraine-russia-news/ukrain….

[66] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/19/world/ukraine-russia-news/german….

[67] https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/ukraine/situation-in-ukr… https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/-/2512434.

[68] https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/ukraine/situation-in-ukr….

[69] https://vm.ee/en/news/updated-travel-advice-ukraine-and-russia; https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/aussenpolitik/laender/ukraine-node/uk…https://twitter.com/SFischer_EU/status/1495035054766137344?s=20&t=aSz6KQ….

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[70] https://en dot interfax.com.ua/information/basic/799750.html.

[71] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/19/russia-ukraine-updates/#…

[72] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-assess-russian-involvement-in-cybe….

[73] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/foreign-secretary-statement-on-russia….

[74] https://twitter.com/PLinOSCE/status/1494259112082825217?s=20&t=drmz020S3….

[75] https://tass dot com/world/1406209; https://tass dot com/world/1405163.

[76] https://news.cgtn dot com/information/2022-02-19/Wang-Yi-attends-Munich-Safety-Convention-via-video-link-17MCPuu6eti/index.html; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/19/russia-ukraine-updates/#….



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